1
46%
Home Win
2.18
X
25%
Draw
4.02
2
29%
Away Win
3.43
xG Home
1.57
xG Away
1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS
56%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Southampton an expected 1.6 goals and Millwall an expected 1.2 goals. Southampton have a 46% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Millwall at 29%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 53%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.8%
1:0
9.8%
2:1
9.3%
2:0
7.7%
0:1
7.5%
1:2
7.1%
0:0
6.2%
2:2
5.6%
3:1
4.9%
0:2
4.5%
3:0
4%
3:2
2.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Southampton Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 46% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.17 |
| Market Odds | 2.31 |
Team Comparison
| Southampton | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | League Position | 3 |
| 80 | Points | 83 |
| 48% | Win % | 52% |
| 1.78 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.39 |
| 1.22 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.07 |
Venue Form
Southampton at Home
W1
D2
L0
(3 games)
Millwall Away
W1
D2
L0
(3 games)
Recent Form
Southampton
W
D
D
Millwall
D
D
W
