1
41%
Home Win
2.44
X
25%
Draw
4.02
2
34%
Away Win
2.93
xG Home
1.51
xG Away
1.35
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS
58%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Southampton an expected 1.5 goals and Middlesbrough an expected 1.4 goals. Southampton have a 41% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Middlesbrough at 34%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 55%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.7%
2:1
8.8%
1:0
8.6%
1:2
7.9%
0:1
7.7%
2:0
6.5%
2:2
6%
0:0
5.7%
0:2
5.2%
3:1
4.4%
1:3
3.6%
3:0
3.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Southampton Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 41% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.44 |
| Market Odds | 2.59 |
Team Comparison
| Southampton | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | League Position | 5 |
| 80 | Points | 80 |
| 48% | Win % | 48% |
| 1.78 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.57 |
| 1.22 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.02 |
Venue Form
Southampton at Home
W2
D2
L0
(4 games)
Middlesbrough Away
W1
D3
L1
(5 games)
Recent Form
Southampton
W
W
D
D
Middlesbrough
W
L
D
D
D
