1
48%
Home Win
2.08
X
28%
Draw
3.54
2
24%
Away Win
4.24
xG Home
1.33
xG Away
0.84
Over 2.5 Goals
37%
BTTS
42%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives São Paulo FC an expected 1.3 goals and Vitoria an expected 0.8 goals. São Paulo FC have a 48% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Vitoria at 24%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 63%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
15.3%
1:1
12.8%
0:0
11.5%
2:0
10.1%
0:1
9.6%
2:1
8.5%
1:2
5.3%
3:0
4.5%
0:2
4%
3:1
3.7%
2:2
3.5%
3:2
1.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | São Paulo FC Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 48% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.08 |
| Market Odds | 2.22 |
Team Comparison
| São Paulo FC | Vitoria | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | League Position | 15 |
| 51 | Points | 45 |
| 37% | Win % | 29% |
| 1.13 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.92 |
| 1.24 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.37 |
Venue Form
São Paulo FC at Home
W2
D1
L0
(3 games)
Vitoria Away
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
São Paulo FC
W
D
W
Vitoria
D
L
