1
30%
Home Win
3.36
X
26%
Draw
3.87
2
44%
Away Win
2.25
xG Home
1.16
xG Away
1.47
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS
53%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Bahia an expected 1.2 goals and Mirassol an expected 1.5 goals. Bahia have a 30% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and Mirassol at 44%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 51%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.3%
0:1
10.6%
1:2
9%
1:0
8.3%
0:2
7.8%
0:0
7.2%
2:1
7.1%
2:2
5.2%
2:0
4.8%
1:3
4.4%
0:3
3.8%
3:1
2.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Mirassol Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 44% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.27 |
| Market Odds | 2.42 |
Team Comparison
| Bahia | Mirassol | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | League Position | 4 |
| 60 | Points | 67 |
| 45% | Win % | 47% |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.66 |
| 1.21 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.03 |
Venue Form
Bahia at Home
W2
D1
L1
(4 games)
Mirassol Away
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Bahia
W
W
L
D
Mirassol
L
W
