1
43%
Home Win
2.35
X
28%
Draw
3.55
2
29%
Away Win
3.42
xG Home
1.27
xG Away
1.01
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS
46%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Atletico-MG an expected 1.3 goals and Santos an expected 1.0 goals. Atletico-MG have a 43% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Santos at 29%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 60%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13.1%
1:0
13%
0:1
10.3%
0:0
10.2%
2:1
8.4%
2:0
8.3%
1:2
6.6%
0:2
5.2%
2:2
4.2%
3:1
3.5%
3:0
3.5%
1:3
2.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Atletico-MG Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 43% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.33 |
| Market Odds | 2.47 |
Team Comparison
| Atletico-MG | Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | League Position | 12 |
| 48 | Points | 47 |
| 32% | Win % | 32% |
| 1.13 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.18 |
| 1.16 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.32 |
Venue Form
Atletico-MG at Home
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Santos Away
W1
D2
L0
(3 games)
Recent Form
Atletico-MG
D
L
W
Santos
D
D
W
