1
60%
Home Win
1.66
X
23%
Draw
4.39
2
17%
Away Win
5.85
xG Home
1.80
xG Away
0.84
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS
47%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Palmeiras an expected 1.8 goals and Bahia an expected 0.8 goals. Palmeiras have a 60% win probability, draw stands at 23%, and Bahia at 17%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 51%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
12.9%
2:0
11.6%
1:1
10.8%
2:1
9.7%
0:0
7.2%
3:0
6.9%
0:1
6%
3:1
5.8%
1:2
4.5%
2:2
4.1%
4:0
3.1%
4:1
2.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Palmeiras Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 60% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.67 |
| Market Odds | 1.77 |
Team Comparison
| Palmeiras | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | League Position | 7 |
| 76 | Points | 60 |
| 61% | Win % | 45% |
| 1.74 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.32 |
| 0.87 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.21 |
Venue Form
Palmeiras at Home
W2
D1
L0
(3 games)
Bahia Away
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Palmeiras
W
D
W
Bahia
D
L
