1
32%
Home Win
3.11
X
28%
Draw
3.59
2
40%
Away Win
2.5
xG Home
1.10
xG Away
1.26
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS
48%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Rio Ave FC an expected 1.1 goals and Nacional an expected 1.3 goals. Rio Ave FC have a 32% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Nacional at 40%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 58%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13.1%
0:1
11.9%
1:0
10.4%
0:0
9.5%
1:2
8.2%
0:2
7.5%
2:1
7.2%
2:0
5.7%
2:2
4.5%
1:3
3.5%
0:3
3.2%
3:1
2.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Nacional Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 40% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.5 |
| Market Odds | 2.66 |
Team Comparison
| Rio Ave FC | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | League Position | 14 |
| 36 | Points | 34 |
| 24% | Win % | 26% |
| 1.03 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.09 |
| 1.68 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.32 |
Venue Form
Rio Ave FC at Home
W0
D2
L2
(4 games)
Nacional Away
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Rio Ave FC
D
L
D
L
Nacional
L
W
