1
55%
Home Win
1.81
X
22%
Draw
4.58
2
23%
Away Win
4.35
xG Home
1.97
xG Away
1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
BTTS
60%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Real Madrid an expected 2.0 goals and Villarreal an expected 1.2 goals. Real Madrid have a 55% win probability, draw stands at 22%, and Villarreal at 23%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 61%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
9.9%
2:1
9.8%
1:0
8.3%
2:0
8.2%
3:1
6.4%
1:2
6%
2:2
5.9%
3:0
5.3%
0:1
5.1%
0:0
4.2%
3:2
3.8%
4:1
3.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Real Madrid Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 55% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.82 |
| Market Odds | 1.93 |
Team Comparison
| Real Madrid | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | League Position | 3 |
| 86 | Points | 72 |
| 71% | Win % | 58% |
| 2.03 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.89 |
| 0.92 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.21 |
Venue Form
Real Madrid at Home
W2
D0
L0
(2 games)
Villarreal Away
W0
D2
L0
(2 games)
Recent Form
Real Madrid
W
W
Villarreal
D
D
