1
25%
Home Win
4.05
X
24%
Draw
4.09
2
51%
Away Win
1.97
xG Home
1.07
xG Away
1.65
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS
53%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Alavés an expected 1.1 goals and Atlético Madrid an expected 1.7 goals. Alavés have a 25% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Atlético Madrid at 51%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 51%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.6%
0:1
10.8%
1:2
9.6%
0:2
8.9%
1:0
7%
0:0
6.5%
2:1
6.2%
1:3
5.3%
2:2
5.2%
0:3
4.9%
2:0
3.8%
2:3
2.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Atlético Madrid Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 51% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.96 |
| Market Odds | 2.09 |
Team Comparison
| Alavés | Atlético Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | League Position | 4 |
| 43 | Points | 69 |
| 29% | Win % | 55% |
| 1.16 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.63 |
| 1.47 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.16 |
Venue Form
Alavés at Home
W2
D0
L1
(3 games)
Atlético Madrid Away
W3
D0
L3
(6 games)
Recent Form
Alavés
W
L
W
Atlético Madrid
W
L
W
W
L
