1
46%
Home Win
2.16
X
28%
Draw
3.55
2
26%
Away Win
3.92
xG Home
1.32
xG Away
0.90
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS
44%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Rayo Vallecano an expected 1.3 goals and Athletic Club an expected 0.9 goals. Rayo Vallecano have a 46% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Athletic Club at 26%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 62%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
14.3%
1:1
12.9%
0:0
10.9%
0:1
9.8%
2:0
9.5%
2:1
8.5%
1:2
5.8%
0:2
4.4%
3:0
4.2%
2:2
3.8%
3:1
3.7%
1:3
1.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Rayo Vallecano Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 46% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.17 |
| Market Odds | 2.31 |
Team Comparison
| Rayo Vallecano | Athletic Club | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | League Position | 12 |
| 50 | Points | 45 |
| 32% | Win % | 34% |
| 1.08 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.13 |
| 1.16 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.53 |
Venue Form
Rayo Vallecano at Home
W2
D2
L0
(4 games)
Athletic Club Away
W1
D0
L2
(3 games)
Recent Form
Rayo Vallecano
W
D
D
W
Athletic Club
L
W
L
