1
66%
Home Win
1.52
X
21%
Draw
4.7
2
13%
Away Win
7.81
xG Home
1.88
xG Away
0.68
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
BTTS
42%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Real Madrid an expected 1.9 goals and Rayo Vallecano an expected 0.7 goals. Real Madrid have a 66% win probability, draw stands at 21%, and Rayo Vallecano at 13%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 53%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
14.5%
2:0
13.6%
1:1
9.9%
2:1
9.3%
3:0
8.5%
0:0
7.7%
3:1
5.8%
0:1
5.3%
4:0
4%
1:2
3.4%
2:2
3.2%
4:1
2.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Real Madrid Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 66% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.52 |
| Market Odds | 1.61 |
Team Comparison
| Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | League Position | 8 |
| 86 | Points | 50 |
| 71% | Win % | 32% |
| 2.03 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.08 |
| 0.92 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.16 |
Venue Form
Real Madrid at Home
W2
D0
L0
(2 games)
Rayo Vallecano Away
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Recent Form
Real Madrid
W
W
Rayo Vallecano
D
W
