1
20%
Home Win
4.95
X
28%
Draw
3.59
2
52%
Away Win
1.92
xG Home
0.74
xG Away
1.38
Over 2.5 Goals
36%
BTTS
39%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Querétaro an expected 0.7 goals and Toluca an expected 1.4 goals. Querétaro have a 20% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Toluca at 52%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 64%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
16.5%
1:1
12.3%
0:0
12%
0:2
11.4%
1:0
8.9%
1:2
8.4%
0:3
5.2%
2:1
4.6%
1:3
3.9%
2:0
3.3%
2:2
3.1%
0:4
1.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Toluca Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 52% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.92 |
| Market Odds | 2.05 |
Team Comparison
| Querétaro | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | League Position | 5 |
| 20 | Points | 30 |
| 24% | Win % | 47% |
| 1 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.65 |
| 1.24 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.94 |
Venue Form
Querétaro at Home
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Toluca Away
W1
D0
L3
(4 games)
Recent Form
Querétaro
L
D
Toluca
W
L
L
L