Querétaro vs Toluca Prediction

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0 – 1
Most Likely Score
Sat, 22 Aug 2026 · Liga MX
1 20%
Home Win 4.95
X 28%
Draw 3.59
2 52%
Away Win 1.92
xG Home 0.74
xG Away 1.38
Over 2.5 Goals 36%
BTTS 39%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Querétaro an expected 0.7 goals and Toluca an expected 1.4 goals. Querétaro have a 20% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Toluca at 52%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 64%.

Correct Score Predictions

0:1 16.5%
1:1 12.3%
0:0 12%
0:2 11.4%
1:0 8.9%
1:2 8.4%
0:3 5.2%
2:1 4.6%
1:3 3.9%
2:0 3.3%
2:2 3.1%
0:4 1.8%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Toluca Win
Probability 52%
Predicted Odds 1.92
Market Odds 2.05

Team Comparison

Querétaro Toluca
11 League Position 5
20 Points 30
24% Win % 47%
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.65
1.24 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94

Venue Form

Querétaro at Home
W0 D1 L1 (2 games)
0% win rate
Toluca Away
W1 D0 L3 (4 games)
25% win rate

Recent Form

Querétaro
L D
Toluca
W L L L