1
33%
Home Win
3.03
X
24%
Draw
4.19
2
43%
Away Win
2.32
xG Home
1.41
xG Away
1.64
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS
61%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives QPR an expected 1.4 goals and Derby an expected 1.6 goals. QPR have a 33% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Derby at 43%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 59%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10.9%
1:2
9%
0:1
7.8%
2:1
7.7%
1:0
6.7%
0:2
6.4%
2:2
6.3%
1:3
4.9%
0:0
4.7%
2:0
4.7%
3:1
3.6%
0:3
3.5%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Derby Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 43% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.33 |
| Market Odds | 2.47 |
Team Comparison
| QPR | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | League Position | 8 |
| 58 | Points | 69 |
| 35% | Win % | 43% |
| 1.33 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.46 |
| 1.59 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.28 |
Venue Form
QPR at Home
W0
D1
L4
(5 games)
Derby Away
W2
D1
L2
(5 games)
Recent Form
QPR
D
L
L
L
L
Derby
D
L
W
L
W
