1
64%
Home Win
1.57
X
20%
Draw
4.9
2
16%
Away Win
6.25
xG Home
2.06
xG Away
0.92
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS
53%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Southampton an expected 2.1 goals and Portsmouth FC an expected 0.9 goals. Southampton have a 64% win probability, draw stands at 20%, and Portsmouth FC at 16%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 57%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:0
10.8%
1:0
10.5%
2:1
9.9%
1:1
9.6%
3:0
7.4%
3:1
6.8%
0:0
5.1%
0:1
4.7%
2:2
4.6%
1:2
4.4%
4:0
3.8%
4:1
3.5%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Southampton Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 64% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.56 |
| Market Odds | 1.66 |
Team Comparison
| Southampton | Portsmouth FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | League Position | 18 |
| 80 | Points | 55 |
| 48% | Win % | 30% |
| 1.78 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.07 |
| 1.22 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.39 |
Venue Form
Southampton at Home
W3
D2
L0
(5 games)
Portsmouth FC Away
W1
D2
L1
(4 games)
Recent Form
Southampton
W
W
W
D
D
Portsmouth FC
D
W
L
D
