1
32%
Home Win
3.1
X
28%
Draw
3.57
2
40%
Away Win
2.52
xG Home
1.09
xG Away
1.24
Over 2.5 Goals
41%
BTTS
47%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Pachuca an expected 1.1 goals and Toluca an expected 1.2 goals. Pachuca have a 32% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Toluca at 40%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 59%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13.1%
0:1
12%
1:0
10.6%
0:0
9.7%
1:2
8.2%
0:2
7.5%
2:1
7.2%
2:0
5.8%
2:2
4.5%
1:3
3.4%
0:3
3.1%
3:1
2.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Toluca Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 40% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.5 |
| Market Odds | 2.66 |
Team Comparison
| Pachuca | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | League Position | 5 |
| 31 | Points | 30 |
| 53% | Win % | 47% |
| 1.47 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.65 |
| 1.12 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.94 |
Venue Form
Pachuca at Home
W2
D0
L2
(4 games)
Toluca Away
W1
D0
L3
(4 games)
Recent Form
Pachuca
L
W
W
L
Toluca
W
L
L
L
