NK Varaždin vs HNK Hajduk Split Prediction

1 – 1
Most Likely Score
Sun, 02 Aug 2026 · HNL
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Score · Lineups · Live stats

1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ

xG Home 1.06
xG Away 1.51
Over 2.5 Goals 47%
BTTS 51%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives NK Varaždin an expected 1.1 goals and HNK Hajduk Split an expected 1.5 goals. NK Varaždin have a 27% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and HNK Hajduk Split at 48%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 53%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:1 12.3%
0:1 11.6%
1:2 9.2%
0:2 8.7%
1:0 8.1%
0:0 7.7%
2:1 6.5%
2:2 4.9%
1:3 4.6%
0:3 4.4%
2:0 4.3%
2:3 2.5%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick NK Varaždin Win
Probability 33%
Predicted Odds 3.03
Market Odds 3.22

Team Comparison

NK Varaždin HNK Hajduk Split
3 League Position 2
54 Points 68
42% Win % 56%
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.69
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 1

Venue Form

NK Varaždin at Home
W1 D0 L1 (2 games)
50% win rate
HNK Hajduk Split Away
W1 D0 L2 (3 games)
33% win rate

Recent Form

NK Varaždin
L W
HNK Hajduk Split
L W L

Head to Head

03 May 2026 HNL
HNK Hajduk Split 3 : 1 NK Varazdin
L
28 Feb 2026 HNL
NK Varazdin 1 : 1 HNK Hajduk Split
D
29 Nov 2025 HNL
HNK Hajduk Split 1 : 1 NK Varazdin
D