1
67%
Home Win
1.49
X
21%
Draw
4.85
2
12%
Away Win
8.03
xG Home
1.94
xG Away
0.69
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS
43%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Mirassol an expected 1.9 goals and Vitoria an expected 0.7 goals. Mirassol have a 67% win probability, draw stands at 21%, and Vitoria at 12%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 51%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
13.9%
2:0
13.5%
1:1
9.7%
2:1
9.4%
3:0
8.7%
0:0
7.2%
3:1
6.1%
0:1
5%
4:0
4.2%
1:2
3.3%
2:2
3.3%
4:1
2.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Mirassol Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 67% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.49 |
| Market Odds | 1.59 |
Team Comparison
| Mirassol | Vitoria | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | League Position | 15 |
| 67 | Points | 45 |
| 47% | Win % | 29% |
| 1.66 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.92 |
| 1.03 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.37 |
Venue Form
Mirassol at Home
W3
D2
L0
(5 games)
Vitoria Away
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Mirassol
W
W
D
W
D
Vitoria
D
L
