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Millwall vs Derby — Prediction

Millwall Millwall
1 – 1
Most likely score (model)
Sat, 31 Oct 2026 · Championship
Open Match Centre
Score · Lineups · Live stats
Derby Derby

Match information

Scheduled
Kickoff
31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
Competition
Championship
Previous matches

All competitions; results strictly before this fixture. The recorded score may include extra time; shootout goals are not added.

Millwall
  • Portsmouth FC 2–1 Millwall
  • Millwall 2–2 West Ham
  • Middlesbrough 2–2 Millwall
  • Blackburn 3–1 Millwall
  • Millwall 0–1 Newcastle United
Derby
  • Sheffield United 1–1 Derby
  • Burnley 1–1 Derby
  • Derby 1–2 Birmingham
  • Derby 0–1 West Brom
  • West Ham 3–0 Derby
Model & data

Table-based model estimate

Matches in saved table: Millwall 46 · Derby 46. Data saved: 2026-10-31 00:00 UTC.

Table season: 2025

This Poisson estimate uses goals scored and conceded per game in the saved league table. Home advantage is 1.08; goal rates are limited to 0.3–5.0.

Model goal expectation is not measured shot-based xG. Injuries, confirmed lineups and live match state are not inputs to this calculation.

Assessment recorded before kickoff: Millwall 42% · 2026-10-31 01:01 UTC.

An estimate is not a guarantee of the result.

Lineups, events, odds and statistics depend on provider coverage. Missing data is not a zero value.

1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ

1 46%
Home Win 2.18
X 26%
Draw 3.86
2 28%
Away Win 3.54
Model goal expectation · 1 1.48
Model goal expectation · 2 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
BTTS 52%

Table-based model estimate

Model goal expectation: Millwall 1.48 · Derby 1.10.
1 46% · X 26% · 2 28%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:1 12.3%
1:0 11.2%
2:1 9.1%
0:1 8.3%
2:0 8.3%
0:0 7.6%
1:2 6.8%
2:2 5%
0:2 4.6%
3:1 4.5%
3:0 4.1%
1:3 2.5%

About this assessment

Model outcome Millwall Win
Probability 46%
Predicted Odds 2.17

Team Comparison

Millwall Derby
3 League Position 8
83 Points 69
52% Win % 43%
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.46
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 1.28

Venue Form

Millwall at Home
W0 D1 L1 (2 games)
0% win rate
Derby Away
W0 D2 L1 (3 games)
0% win rate

Recent Form

Millwall
L D D L L
Derby
D D L L L

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