1
44%
Home Win
2.27
X
25%
Draw
4.06
2
31%
Away Win
3.19
xG Home
1.58
xG Away
1.29
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS
58%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Middlesbrough an expected 1.6 goals and Southampton an expected 1.3 goals. Middlesbrough have a 44% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Southampton at 31%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 55%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.5%
2:1
9.1%
1:0
8.9%
1:2
7.5%
0:1
7.3%
2:0
7%
2:2
5.9%
0:0
5.6%
3:1
4.8%
0:2
4.7%
3:0
3.7%
1:3
3.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Middlesbrough Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 44% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.27 |
| Market Odds | 2.42 |
Team Comparison
| Middlesbrough | Southampton | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | League Position | 4 |
| 80 | Points | 80 |
| 48% | Win % | 48% |
| 1.57 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.78 |
| 1.02 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.22 |
Venue Form
Middlesbrough at Home
W2
D2
L0
(4 games)
Southampton Away
W2
D2
L0
(4 games)
Recent Form
Middlesbrough
D
W
W
D
Southampton
D
D
W
W
