1
45%
Home Win
2.2
X
27%
Draw
3.69
2
27%
Away Win
3.64
xG Home
1.38
xG Away
1.01
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
BTTS
48%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Middlesbrough an expected 1.4 goals and Millwall an expected 1.0 goals. Middlesbrough have a 45% win probability, draw stands at 27%, and Millwall at 27%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 57%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.8%
1:0
12.6%
0:1
9.2%
0:0
9.1%
2:1
8.8%
2:0
8.7%
1:2
6.4%
0:2
4.7%
2:2
4.5%
3:1
4.1%
3:0
4%
1:3
2.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Middlesbrough Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Middlesbrough | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | League Position | 3 |
| 80 | Points | 83 |
| 48% | Win % | 52% |
| 1.57 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.39 |
| 1.02 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.07 |
Venue Form
Middlesbrough at Home
W3
D2
L0
(5 games)
Millwall Away
W1
D2
L1
(4 games)
Recent Form
Middlesbrough
W
D
W
W
D
Millwall
L
D
D
W
