1
32%
Home Win
3.14
X
24%
Draw
4.18
2
44%
Away Win
2.26
xG Home
1.37
xG Away
1.66
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS
60%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Heerenveen an expected 1.4 goals and Ajax an expected 1.7 goals. Heerenveen have a 32% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Ajax at 44%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 58%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11%
1:2
9.1%
0:1
8%
2:1
7.6%
1:0
6.6%
0:2
6.6%
2:2
6.3%
1:3
5%
0:0
4.8%
2:0
4.6%
0:3
3.7%
3:1
3.5%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Ajax Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Heerenveen | Ajax | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | League Position | 5 |
| 51 | Points | 56 |
| 41% | Win % | 41% |
| 1.68 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.82 |
| 1.56 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.21 |
Venue Form
Heerenveen at Home
W1
D0
L0
(1 games)
Ajax Away
W1
D0
L0
(1 games)
Recent Form
Heerenveen
W
Ajax
W
Head to Head
Ajax
1 : 1
Heerenveen
D
Heerenveen
0 : 2
Ajax
W
Ajax
1 : 0
Heerenveen
L
