1
42%
Home Win
2.38
X
28%
Draw
3.63
2
30%
Away Win
3.3
xG Home
1.31
xG Away
1.07
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS
48%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Gremio an expected 1.3 goals and Corinthians an expected 1.1 goals. Gremio have a 42% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Corinthians at 30%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 58%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13%
1:0
12.2%
0:1
9.9%
0:0
9.3%
2:1
8.5%
2:0
8%
1:2
6.9%
0:2
5.3%
2:2
4.5%
3:1
3.7%
3:0
3.5%
1:3
2.5%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Gremio Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 35% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.86 |
| Market Odds | 3.04 |
Team Comparison
| Gremio | Corinthians | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | League Position | 13 |
| 49 | Points | 47 |
| 34% | Win % | 32% |
| 1.24 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.11 |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.24 |
Venue Form
Gremio at Home
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Corinthians Away
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Gremio
L
W
D
Corinthians
L
D
Head to Head
Corinthians
2 : 0
Gremio
L
Gremio
1 : 1
Corinthians
D
Gremio
0 : 3
Corinthians
W