1
26%
Home Win
3.85
X
25%
Draw
3.94
2
49%
Away Win
2.05
xG Home
1.06
xG Away
1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS
52%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Excelsior an expected 1.1 goals and Utrecht an expected 1.6 goals. Excelsior have a 26% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Utrecht at 49%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 51%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.1%
0:1
11.4%
1:2
9.4%
0:2
8.8%
1:0
7.8%
0:0
7.3%
2:1
6.4%
2:2
5%
1:3
4.9%
0:3
4.6%
2:0
4.1%
2:3
2.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Utrecht Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 49% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.04 |
| Market Odds | 2.17 |
Team Comparison
| Excelsior | Utrecht | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | League Position | 6 |
| 38 | Points | 53 |
| 29% | Win % | 44% |
| 1.26 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.62 |
| 1.65 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.24 |
Venue Form
Excelsior at Home
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Utrecht Away
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Excelsior
D
W
Utrecht
W
L
