1
47%
Home Win
2.11
X
25%
Draw
3.98
2
27%
Away Win
3.65
xG Home
1.57
xG Away
1.13
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS
54%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Excelsior an expected 1.6 goals and Sparta Rotterdam an expected 1.1 goals. Excelsior have a 47% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Sparta Rotterdam at 27%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 51%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.9%
1:0
10.6%
2:1
9.4%
2:0
8.3%
0:1
7.6%
1:2
6.7%
0:0
6.7%
2:2
5.3%
3:1
4.9%
3:0
4.3%
0:2
4.3%
3:2
2.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Excelsior Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 47% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.13 |
| Market Odds | 2.26 |
Team Comparison
| Excelsior | Sparta Rotterdam | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | League Position | 10 |
| 38 | Points | 43 |
| 29% | Win % | 35% |
| 1.26 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.18 |
| 1.65 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.82 |
Venue Form
Excelsior at Home
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Sparta Rotterdam Away
W0
D0
L2
(2 games)
Recent Form
Excelsior
D
W
Sparta Rotterdam
L
L
