1
47%
Home Win
2.13
X
25%
Draw
3.96
2
28%
Away Win
3.6
xG Home
1.55
xG Away
1.13
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS
53%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Derby an expected 1.5 goals and Swansea an expected 1.1 goals. Derby have a 47% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Swansea at 28%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 50%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12%
1:0
10.6%
2:1
9.3%
2:0
8.2%
0:1
7.8%
0:0
6.9%
1:2
6.8%
2:2
5.3%
3:1
4.8%
0:2
4.4%
3:0
4.3%
3:2
2.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Derby Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 47% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.13 |
| Market Odds | 2.26 |
Team Comparison
| Derby | Swansea | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | League Position | 11 |
| 69 | Points | 64 |
| 43% | Win % | 39% |
| 1.46 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.24 |
| 1.28 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.28 |
Venue Form
Derby at Home
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Swansea Away
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Derby
L
W
Swansea
D
W
L
