1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ
xG Home
1.47
xG Away
1.01
Over 2.5 Goals
45%
BTTS
49%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Derby an expected 1.5 goals and Stoke City an expected 1.0 goals. Derby have a 48% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and Stoke City at 26%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 55%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.4%
1:0
12.3%
2:1
9.1%
2:0
9%
0:1
8.5%
0:0
8.4%
1:2
6.3%
2:2
4.6%
3:1
4.5%
3:0
4.4%
0:2
4.3%
3:2
2.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Derby Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 48% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.08 |
| Market Odds | 2.22 |
Team Comparison
| Derby | Stoke City | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | League Position | 17 |
| 69 | Points | 55 |
| 43% | Win % | 33% |
| 1.46 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.11 |
| 1.28 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.22 |
Venue Form
Derby at Home
W1
D0
L3
(4 games)
Stoke City Away
W1
D1
L2
(4 games)
Recent Form
Derby
L
L
L
W
Stoke City
W
D
L
L
