1
47%
Home Win
2.11
X
24%
Draw
4.25
2
29%
Away Win
3.45
xG Home
1.73
xG Away
1.31
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS
60%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Derby an expected 1.7 goals and Sheffield United an expected 1.3 goals. Derby have a 47% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Sheffield United at 29%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 59%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10.8%
2:1
9.4%
1:0
8.3%
2:0
7.2%
1:2
7.1%
0:1
6.3%
2:2
6.1%
3:1
5.4%
0:0
4.8%
3:0
4.1%
0:2
4.1%
3:2
3.5%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Derby Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 47% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.13 |
| Market Odds | 2.26 |
Team Comparison
| Derby | Sheffield United | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | League Position | 13 |
| 69 | Points | 60 |
| 43% | Win % | 39% |
| 1.46 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.43 |
| 1.28 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.43 |
Venue Form
Derby at Home
W1
D0
L2
(3 games)
Sheffield United Away
W3
D0
L0
(3 games)
Recent Form
Derby
L
L
W
Sheffield United
W
W
W
