1
29%
Home Win
3.45
X
28%
Draw
3.59
2
43%
Away Win
2.32
xG Home
1.02
xG Away
1.31
Over 2.5 Goals
41%
BTTS
47%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Charlton an expected 1.0 goals and Derby an expected 1.3 goals. Charlton have a 29% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Derby at 43%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 59%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13%
0:1
12.8%
1:0
10%
0:0
9.8%
1:2
8.5%
0:2
8.4%
2:1
6.6%
2:0
5.1%
2:2
4.3%
1:3
3.7%
0:3
3.6%
3:1
2.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Derby Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 43% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.33 |
| Market Odds | 2.47 |
Team Comparison
| Charlton | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| 19 | League Position | 8 |
| 53 | Points | 69 |
| 28% | Win % | 43% |
| 0.96 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.46 |
| 1.26 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.28 |
Venue Form
Charlton at Home
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Derby Away
W2
D0
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Charlton
W
L
Derby
W
L
W
