1
31%
Home Win
3.24
X
25%
Draw
4
2
44%
Away Win
2.27
xG Home
1.25
xG Away
1.54
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS
56%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Birmingham an expected 1.3 goals and Southampton an expected 1.5 goals. Birmingham have a 31% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Southampton at 44%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 53%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.8%
0:1
9.4%
1:2
9.1%
1:0
7.7%
2:1
7.4%
0:2
7.3%
0:0
6.1%
2:2
5.7%
2:0
4.8%
1:3
4.7%
0:3
3.7%
3:1
3.1%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Southampton Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 44% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.27 |
| Market Odds | 2.42 |
Team Comparison
| Birmingham | Southampton | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | League Position | 4 |
| 64 | Points | 80 |
| 37% | Win % | 48% |
| 1.24 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.78 |
| 1.22 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.22 |
Venue Form
Birmingham at Home
W2
D0
L0
(2 games)
Southampton Away
W2
D1
L0
(3 games)
Recent Form
Birmingham
W
W
Southampton
D
W
W
