1
41%
Home Win
2.42
X
27%
Draw
3.66
2
31%
Away Win
3.19
xG Home
1.32
xG Away
1.11
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS
49%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Birmingham an expected 1.3 goals and Bristol City an expected 1.1 goals. Birmingham have a 41% win probability, draw stands at 27%, and Bristol City at 31%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 56%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.9%
1:0
11.6%
0:1
9.8%
0:0
8.8%
2:1
8.5%
2:0
7.7%
1:2
7.2%
0:2
5.4%
2:2
4.7%
3:1
3.7%
3:0
3.4%
1:3
2.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Birmingham Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 41% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.44 |
| Market Odds | 2.59 |
Team Comparison
| Birmingham | Bristol City | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | League Position | 12 |
| 64 | Points | 62 |
| 37% | Win % | 37% |
| 1.24 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.28 |
| 1.22 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.28 |
Venue Form
Birmingham at Home
W2
D0
L0
(2 games)
Bristol City Away
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Birmingham
W
W
Bristol City
L
D
