1
81%
Home Win
1.24
X
13%
Draw
7.69
2
6%
Away Win
16.69
xG Home
2.63
xG Away
0.58
Over 2.5 Goals
62%
BTTS
41%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Benfica an expected 2.6 goals and Guimaraes an expected 0.6 goals. Benfica have a 81% win probability, draw stands at 13%, and Guimaraes at 6%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 62%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:0
13.9%
3:0
12.2%
1:0
10.6%
2:1
8.1%
4:0
8%
3:1
7.1%
1:1
6.2%
4:1
4.7%
0:0
4%
2:2
2.4%
0:1
2.3%
3:2
2.1%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Benfica Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 81% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.23 |
| Market Odds | 1.31 |
Team Comparison
| Benfica | Guimaraes | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | League Position | 9 |
| 80 | Points | 42 |
| 68% | Win % | 35% |
| 2.18 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.15 |
| 0.74 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.5 |
Venue Form
Benfica at Home
W2
D1
L0
(3 games)
Guimaraes Away
W2
D0
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Benfica
W
D
W
Guimaraes
L
W
W
