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Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund — Prediction

Bayern Munich Bayern Munich
1 – 0
Most likely score (model)
Sat, 31 Oct 2026 · Bundesliga
Open Match Centre
Score · Lineups · Live stats
Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund

Match information

Scheduled
Kickoff
31 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC
Competition
Bundesliga
Previous matches

All competitions; results strictly before this fixture. The recorded score may include extra time; shootout goals are not added.

Bayern Munich
  • Bayern Munich 6–1 FC Magdeburg
  • SC Freiburg 1–3 Bayern Munich
  • Bayern Munich 7–0 Union Berlin
  • SV Elversberg 1–2 Bayern Munich
  • Bayern Munich 5–0 Bodø/Glimt
Borussia Dortmund
  • Borussia Dortmund 1–0 Eintracht Frankfurt
  • VfB Stuttgart 0–1 Borussia Dortmund
  • Borussia Dortmund 3–0 SC Paderborn 07
  • Borussia Dortmund 3–2 Villarreal
  • 1899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Borussia Dortmund
Model & data

Table-based model estimate

Matches in saved table: Bayern Munich 7 · Borussia Dortmund 7. Data saved: 2026-10-31 00:00 UTC.

Table season: 2026

This Poisson estimate uses goals scored and conceded per game in the saved league table. Home advantage is 1.08; goal rates are limited to 0.3–5.0.

Model goal expectation is not measured shot-based xG. Injuries, confirmed lineups and live match state are not inputs to this calculation.

Assessment recorded before kickoff: Bayern Munich 77% · 2026-10-31 01:01 UTC.

An estimate is not a guarantee of the result.

Lineups, events, odds and statistics depend on provider coverage. Missing data is not a zero value.

1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ

1 47%
Home Win 2.11
X 30%
Draw 3.36
2 23%
Away Win 4.37
Model goal expectation · 1 1.23
Model goal expectation · 2 0.76
Over 2.5 Goals 32%
BTTS 38%

Table-based model estimate

Model goal expectation: Bayern Munich 1.23 · Borussia Dortmund 0.76.
1 47% · X 30% · 2 23%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:0 16.8%
0:0 13.6%
1:1 12.8%
0:1 10.4%
2:0 10.3%
2:1 7.9%
1:2 4.9%
3:0 4.2%
0:2 3.9%
3:1 3.2%
2:2 3%
4:0 1.3%

About this assessment

Model outcome Bayern Munich Win
Probability 47%
Predicted Odds 2.13

Team Comparison

Bayern Munich Borussia Dortmund
1 League Position 2
17 Points 17
71% Win % 71%
3.57 Avg Goals Scored 1.71
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 0.57

Venue Form

Bayern Munich at Home
W3 D0 L0 (3 games)
100% win rate
Borussia Dortmund Away
W2 D0 L0 (2 games)
100% win rate

Recent Form

Bayern Munich
W W W W W
Borussia Dortmund
W W W W W

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