1
48%
Home Win
2.08
X
27%
Draw
3.68
2
25%
Away Win
4.05
xG Home
1.40
xG Away
0.92
Over 2.5 Goals
41%
BTTS
45%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Baltika an expected 1.4 goals and Lokomotiv Moscow an expected 0.9 goals. Baltika have a 48% win probability, draw stands at 27%, and Lokomotiv Moscow at 25%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 59%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
13.8%
1:1
12.7%
0:0
9.8%
2:0
9.6%
0:1
9%
2:1
8.9%
1:2
5.8%
3:0
4.5%
0:2
4.1%
3:1
4.1%
2:2
4.1%
3:2
1.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Baltika Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 48% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.08 |
| Market Odds | 2.22 |
Team Comparison
| Baltika | Lokomotiv Moscow | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | League Position | 3 |
| 46 | Points | 53 |
| 37% | Win % | 47% |
| 1.27 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.8 |
| 0.7 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.3 |
