1
23%
Home Win
4.31
X
24%
Draw
4.18
2
53%
Away Win
1.89
xG Home
1.05
xG Away
1.71
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS
53%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Athletic Club an expected 1.1 goals and Atlético Madrid an expected 1.7 goals. Athletic Club have a 23% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Atlético Madrid at 53%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 52%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.4%
0:1
10.8%
1:2
9.7%
0:2
9.3%
1:0
6.6%
0:0
6.3%
2:1
6%
1:3
5.5%
0:3
5.3%
2:2
5.1%
2:0
3.5%
2:3
2.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Atlético Madrid Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 53% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.89 |
| Market Odds | 2.01 |
Team Comparison
| Athletic Club | Atlético Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | League Position | 4 |
| 45 | Points | 69 |
| 34% | Win % | 55% |
| 1.13 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.63 |
| 1.53 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.16 |
Venue Form
Athletic Club at Home
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Atlético Madrid Away
W2
D0
L2
(4 games)
Recent Form
Athletic Club
L
W
Atlético Madrid
W
W
L
L
