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Arouca vs Nacional — Prediction

Arouca Arouca
1 – 1
Most likely score (model)
Sun, 01 Nov 2026 · Primeira Liga
Open Match Centre
Score · Lineups · Live stats
Nacional Nacional

Match information

Scheduled
Kickoff
1 Nov 2026, 15:30 UTC
Competition
Primeira Liga
Previous matches

All competitions; results strictly before this fixture. The recorded score may include extra time; shootout goals are not added.

Arouca
  • Alverca 0–1 Arouca
  • Sporting CP 2–2 Arouca
  • Arouca 0–2 Santa Clara
  • Estoril 0–0 Arouca
  • Arouca 3–1 Tondela
Nacional
  • Nacional 1–0 SC Braga
  • Nacional 0–4 Famalicao
  • Nacional 1–3 Alverca
  • Sporting CP 2–0 Nacional
  • Nacional 2–0 Guimaraes
Model & data

Table-based model estimate

Matches in saved table: Arouca 34 · Nacional 34. Data saved: 2026-10-31 00:10 UTC.

Table season: 2025

This Poisson estimate uses goals scored and conceded per game in the saved league table. Home advantage is 1.08; goal rates are limited to 0.3–5.0.

Model goal expectation is not measured shot-based xG. Injuries, confirmed lineups and live match state are not inputs to this calculation.

Assessment recorded before kickoff: Arouca 50% · 2026-10-31 10:40 UTC.

An estimate is not a guarantee of the result.

Lineups, events, odds and statistics depend on provider coverage. Missing data is not a zero value.

1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ

1 39%
Home Win 2.57
X 25%
Draw 4.03
2 36%
Away Win 2.76
Model goal expectation · 1 1.47
Model goal expectation · 2 1.41
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
BTTS 58%

Table-based model estimate

Model goal expectation: Arouca 1.47 · Nacional 1.41.
1 39% · X 25% · 2 36%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:1 11.6%
2:1 8.6%
1:0 8.2%
1:2 8.2%
0:1 7.9%
2:0 6%
2:2 6%
0:0 5.6%
0:2 5.6%
3:1 4.2%
1:3 3.9%
3:0 3%

About this assessment

Model outcome Arouca Win
Probability 39%
Predicted Odds 2.56

Team Comparison

Arouca Nacional
8 League Position 14
42 Points 34
35% Win % 26%
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
1.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.32

Venue Form

Arouca at Home
W1 D0 L1 (2 games)
50% win rate
Nacional Away
W0 D0 L1 (1 games)
0% win rate

Recent Form

Arouca
W D L D W
Nacional
W L L L W

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