1
47%
Home Win
2.14
X
23%
Draw
4.41
2
31%
Away Win
3.26
xG Home
1.83
xG Away
1.45
Over 2.5 Goals
64%
BTTS
64%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Arouca an expected 1.8 goals and Estrela da Amadora an expected 1.5 goals. Arouca have a 47% win probability, draw stands at 23%, and Estrela da Amadora at 31%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 64%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10%
2:1
9.1%
1:2
7.2%
1:0
6.9%
2:2
6.6%
2:0
6.3%
3:1
5.6%
0:1
5.4%
3:2
4.1%
0:2
3.9%
3:0
3.8%
0:0
3.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Arouca Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 47% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.13 |
| Market Odds | 2.26 |
Team Comparison
| Arouca | Estrela da Amadora | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | League Position | 15 |
| 42 | Points | 30 |
| 35% | Win % | 18% |
| 1.38 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.12 |
| 1.88 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.65 |
Venue Form
Arouca at Home
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Estrela da Amadora Away
W0
D1
L2
(3 games)
Recent Form
Arouca
L
D
W
Estrela da Amadora
D
L
L
