Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction

Alavés Alavés
1 – 1
Most Likely Score
Sat, 23 May 2026 · La Liga
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano
1 44%
Home Win 2.27
X 25%
Draw 3.92
2 30%
Away Win 3.29
xG Home 1.50
xG Away 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals 51%
BTTS 54%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Alavés an expected 1.5 goals and Rayo Vallecano an expected 1.2 goals. Alavés have a 44% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Rayo Vallecano at 30%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 51%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:1 12.1%
1:0 10.1%
2:1 9.1%
0:1 8.1%
2:0 7.6%
1:2 7.3%
0:0 6.7%
2:2 5.4%
0:2 4.8%
3:1 4.5%
3:0 3.8%
1:3 2.9%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Alavés Win
Probability 35%
Predicted Odds 2.86
Market Odds 3.04

Team Comparison

Alavés Rayo Vallecano
0 League Position 0
0 Points 0

Venue Form

Alavés at Home
W1 D0 L1 (2 games)
50% win rate
Rayo Vallecano Away
W1 D1 L0 (2 games)
50% win rate

Recent Form

Alavés
L W
Rayo Vallecano
D W

Head to Head

14 Jan 2026 Copa del Rey
Alaves 2 : 0 Rayo Vallecano
L
26 Oct 2025 La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 1 : 0 Alaves
L
29 Mar 2025 La Liga
Alaves 0 : 2 Rayo Vallecano
W