1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ
xG Home
1.07
xG Away
1.09
Over 2.5 Goals
37%
BTTS
44%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Alavés an expected 1.1 goals and Rayo Vallecano an expected 1.1 goals. Alavés have a 35% win probability, draw stands at 29%, and Rayo Vallecano at 36%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 63%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13.4%
0:1
12.5%
1:0
12.3%
0:0
11.4%
1:2
7.3%
2:1
7.2%
0:2
6.8%
2:0
6.6%
2:2
3.9%
1:3
2.7%
3:1
2.6%
0:3
2.5%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Alavés Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 35% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.86 |
| Market Odds | 3.04 |
Team Comparison
| Alavés | Rayo Vallecano | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | League Position | 8 |
| 43 | Points | 50 |
| 29% | Win % | 32% |
| 1.16 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.08 |
| 1.47 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.16 |
Venue Form
Alavés at Home
W2
D0
L1
(3 games)
Rayo Vallecano Away
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Recent Form
Alavés
W
L
W
Rayo Vallecano
D
W
Head to Head
Alaves
2 : 0
Rayo Vallecano
L
Rayo Vallecano
1 : 0
Alaves
L
Alaves
0 : 2
Rayo Vallecano
W
