1
55%
Home Win
1.82
X
22%
Draw
4.53
2
23%
Away Win
4.35
xG Home
1.93
xG Away
1.18
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS
59%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Ajax an expected 1.9 goals and Heerenveen an expected 1.2 goals. Ajax have a 55% win probability, draw stands at 22%, and Heerenveen at 23%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 60%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10.1%
2:1
9.8%
1:0
8.6%
2:0
8.3%
3:1
6.3%
1:2
6%
2:2
5.8%
3:0
5.4%
0:1
5.2%
0:0
4.5%
3:2
3.7%
0:2
3.1%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Ajax Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 55% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.82 |
| Market Odds | 1.93 |
Team Comparison
| Ajax | Heerenveen | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | League Position | 8 |
| 56 | Points | 51 |
| 41% | Win % | 41% |
| 1.82 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.68 |
| 1.21 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.56 |
Venue Form
Ajax at Home
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Heerenveen Away
W1
D0
L2
(3 games)
Recent Form
Ajax
W
L
D
Heerenveen
L
L
W
