1
64%
Home Win
1.56
X
20%
Draw
4.9
2
15%
Away Win
6.46
xG Home
2.04
xG Away
0.89
Over 2.5 Goals
56%
BTTS
51%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Ajax an expected 2.0 goals and Excelsior an expected 0.9 goals. Ajax have a 64% win probability, draw stands at 20%, and Excelsior at 15%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 56%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:0
11.1%
1:0
10.9%
2:1
9.9%
1:1
9.7%
3:0
7.6%
3:1
6.7%
0:0
5.3%
0:1
4.7%
2:2
4.4%
1:2
4.3%
4:0
3.9%
4:1
3.4%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Ajax Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 64% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.56 |
| Market Odds | 1.66 |
Team Comparison
| Ajax | Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | League Position | 13 |
| 56 | Points | 38 |
| 41% | Win % | 29% |
| 1.82 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.26 |
| 1.21 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.65 |
Venue Form
Ajax at Home
W2
D1
L1
(4 games)
Excelsior Away
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Recent Form
Ajax
W
W
L
D
Excelsior
D
W
