1
37%
Home Win
2.71
X
29%
Draw
3.51
2
35%
Away Win
2.9
xG Home
1.16
xG Away
1.11
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS
46%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Watford an expected 1.2 goals and Stoke City an expected 1.1 goals. Watford have a 37% win probability, draw stands at 29%, and Stoke City at 35%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 60%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13.3%
1:0
11.9%
0:1
11.4%
0:0
10.3%
2:1
7.7%
1:2
7.4%
2:0
6.9%
0:2
6.4%
2:2
4.3%
3:1
3%
1:3
2.7%
3:0
2.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Watford Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 37% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.7 |
| Market Odds | 2.88 |
Team Comparison
| Watford | Stoke City | |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | League Position | 17 |
| 57 | Points | 55 |
| 30% | Win % | 33% |
| 1.15 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.11 |
| 1.41 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.22 |
Venue Form
Watford at Home
W1
D0
L2
(3 games)
Stoke City Away
W0
D1
L2
(3 games)
Recent Form
Watford
W
L
L
Stoke City
D
L
L
