1
45%
Home Win
2.21
X
27%
Draw
3.73
2
28%
Away Win
3.59
xG Home
1.41
xG Away
1.04
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS
49%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Watford an expected 1.4 goals and Burnley an expected 1.0 goals. Watford have a 45% win probability, draw stands at 27%, and Burnley at 28%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 56%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.7%
1:0
12.2%
0:1
9%
2:1
8.9%
0:0
8.6%
2:0
8.5%
1:2
6.6%
0:2
4.7%
2:2
4.6%
3:1
4.2%
3:0
4%
1:3
2.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Watford Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Venue Form
Watford at Home
W1
D0
L3
(4 games)
Burnley Away
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Watford
L
W
L
L
Burnley
L
D
W
