1
46%
Home Win
2.2
X
24%
Draw
4.24
2
31%
Away Win
3.24
xG Home
1.71
xG Away
1.37
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS
61%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Derby an expected 1.7 goals and Wrexham an expected 1.4 goals. Derby have a 46% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Wrexham at 31%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 59%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10.8%
2:1
9.2%
1:0
7.9%
1:2
7.4%
2:0
6.7%
0:1
6.3%
2:2
6.3%
3:1
5.2%
0:0
4.6%
0:2
4.3%
3:0
3.8%
3:2
3.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Derby Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 46% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.17 |
| Market Odds | 2.31 |
Team Comparison
| Derby | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | League Position | 7 |
| 69 | Points | 71 |
| 43% | Win % | 41% |
| 1.46 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.5 |
| 1.28 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.41 |
Venue Form
Derby at Home
W1
D0
L3
(4 games)
Wrexham Away
W1
D1
L2
(4 games)
Recent Form
Derby
L
L
L
W
Wrexham
L
D
L
W
