1
37%
Home Win
2.69
X
28%
Draw
3.62
2
35%
Away Win
2.85
xG Home
1.22
xG Away
1.18
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
BTTS
49%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Tigres UANL an expected 1.2 goals and Toluca an expected 1.2 goals. Tigres UANL have a 37% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Toluca at 35%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 57%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13.1%
1:0
11.1%
0:1
10.7%
0:0
9.1%
2:1
8%
1:2
7.7%
2:0
6.8%
0:2
6.3%
2:2
4.7%
3:1
3.3%
1:3
3%
3:0
2.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Tigres UANL Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 37% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.7 |
| Market Odds | 2.88 |
Team Comparison
| Tigres UANL | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | League Position | 5 |
| 25 | Points | 30 |
| 41% | Win % | 47% |
| 1.65 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.65 |
| 1.06 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.94 |
Venue Form
Tigres UANL at Home
W3
D0
L0
(3 games)
Toluca Away
W2
D1
L3
(6 games)
Recent Form
Tigres UANL
W
W
W
Toluca
D
W
W
L
L
