1
26%
Home Win
3.85
X
28%
Draw
3.62
2
46%
Away Win
2.16
xG Home
0.94
xG Away
1.35
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS
45%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Stoke City an expected 0.9 goals and Middlesbrough an expected 1.4 goals. Stoke City have a 26% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Middlesbrough at 46%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 60%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
13.7%
1:1
12.8%
0:0
10.1%
1:0
9.5%
0:2
9.3%
1:2
8.7%
2:1
6%
2:0
4.4%
0:3
4.2%
2:2
4.1%
1:3
3.9%
3:1
1.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Middlesbrough Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 46% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.17 |
| Market Odds | 2.31 |
Team Comparison
| Stoke City | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | League Position | 5 |
| 55 | Points | 80 |
| 33% | Win % | 48% |
| 1.11 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.57 |
| 1.22 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.02 |
Venue Form
Stoke City at Home
W2
D0
L2
(4 games)
Middlesbrough Away
W1
D4
L1
(6 games)
Recent Form
Stoke City
W
W
L
L
Middlesbrough
D
W
L
D
D
