1
62%
Home Win
1.62
X
21%
Draw
4.68
2
17%
Away Win
5.88
xG Home
1.96
xG Away
0.92
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS
52%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Spartak Moscow an expected 2.0 goals and Orenburg an expected 0.9 goals. Spartak Moscow have a 62% win probability, draw stands at 21%, and Orenburg at 17%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 55%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
11.1%
2:0
10.8%
1:1
10.1%
2:1
9.9%
3:0
7%
3:1
6.5%
0:0
5.7%
0:1
5.2%
1:2
4.6%
2:2
4.5%
4:0
3.4%
4:1
3.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Spartak Moscow Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 62% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.61 |
| Market Odds | 1.72 |
Team Comparison
| Spartak Moscow | Orenburg | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | League Position | 12 |
| 52 | Points | 29 |
| 50% | Win % | 23% |
| 1.57 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.97 |
| 1.3 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.47 |
