1
57%
Home Win
1.77
X
22%
Draw
4.49
2
21%
Away Win
4.73
xG Home
1.90
xG Away
1.07
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS
56%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Southampton an expected 1.9 goals and Swansea an expected 1.1 goals. Southampton have a 57% win probability, draw stands at 22%, and Swansea at 21%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 57%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10.4%
2:1
9.9%
1:0
9.7%
2:0
9.2%
3:1
6.3%
3:0
5.8%
1:2
5.6%
0:1
5.5%
2:2
5.3%
0:0
5.1%
3:2
3.4%
4:1
3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Southampton Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 57% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.75 |
| Market Odds | 1.87 |
Team Comparison
| Southampton | Swansea | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | League Position | 11 |
| 80 | Points | 64 |
| 48% | Win % | 39% |
| 1.78 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.24 |
| 1.22 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.28 |
Venue Form
Southampton at Home
W1
D2
L0
(3 games)
Swansea Away
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Southampton
W
D
D
Swansea
D
W
L
