1
48%
Home Win
2.08
X
30%
Draw
3.3
2
22%
Away Win
4.62
xG Home
1.21
xG Away
0.71
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
BTTS
35%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Rubin an expected 1.2 goals and Orenburg an expected 0.7 goals. Rubin have a 48% win probability, draw stands at 30%, and Orenburg at 22%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 70%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
17.8%
0:0
14.8%
1:1
12.6%
2:0
10.8%
0:1
10.4%
2:1
7.6%
1:2
4.4%
3:0
4.3%
0:2
3.7%
3:1
3.1%
2:2
2.7%
4:0
1.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Rubin Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 48% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.08 |
| Market Odds | 2.22 |
Team Comparison
| Rubin | Orenburg | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | League Position | 12 |
| 43 | Points | 29 |
| 37% | Win % | 23% |
| 0.97 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.97 |
| 1 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.47 |
