1
50%
Home Win
2.01
X
26%
Draw
3.8
2
24%
Away Win
4.18
xG Home
1.48
xG Away
0.94
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
BTTS
47%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Millwall an expected 1.5 goals and Swansea an expected 0.9 goals. Millwall have a 50% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and Swansea at 24%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 57%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
13.2%
1:1
12.4%
2:0
9.8%
2:1
9.2%
0:0
8.9%
0:1
8.4%
1:2
5.8%
3:0
4.8%
3:1
4.5%
2:2
4.3%
0:2
3.9%
3:2
2.1%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Millwall Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 50% |
| Predicted Odds | 2 |
| Market Odds | 2.13 |
Team Comparison
| Millwall | Swansea | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | League Position | 11 |
| 83 | Points | 64 |
| 52% | Win % | 39% |
| 1.39 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.24 |
| 1.07 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.28 |
Venue Form
Millwall at Home
W4
D1
L1
(6 games)
Swansea Away
W2
D1
L2
(5 games)
Recent Form
Millwall
D
W
L
W
W
Swansea
W
L
D
W
L
