1
8%
Home Win
12.85
X
21%
Draw
4.83
2
72%
Away Win
1.4
xG Home
0.41
xG Away
1.80
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS
28%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Makhachkala an expected 0.4 goals and Krasnodar an expected 1.8 goals. Makhachkala have a 8% win probability, draw stands at 21%, and Krasnodar at 72%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 62%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
19.7%
0:2
17.7%
0:0
10.9%
0:3
10.6%
1:1
8.1%
1:2
7.3%
0:4
4.8%
1:0
4.5%
1:3
4.4%
1:4
2%
2:1
1.7%
2:2
1.5%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Krasnodar Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 72% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.39 |
| Market Odds | 1.48 |
Team Comparison
| Makhachkala | Krasnodar | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | League Position | 2 |
| 26 | Points | 66 |
| 17% | Win % | 67% |
| 0.63 | Avg Goals Scored | 2 |
| 1.23 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.77 |
