1
45%
Home Win
2.24
X
26%
Draw
3.81
2
29%
Away Win
3.43
xG Home
1.44
xG Away
1.11
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
BTTS
51%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Guadalajara Chivas an expected 1.4 goals and Toluca an expected 1.1 goals. Guadalajara Chivas have a 45% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and Toluca at 29%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 53%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.5%
1:0
11.2%
2:1
9%
0:1
8.7%
2:0
8.1%
0:0
7.8%
1:2
6.9%
2:2
5%
0:2
4.8%
3:1
4.3%
3:0
3.9%
1:3
2.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Toluca Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 50% |
| Predicted Odds | 2 |
| Market Odds | 2.13 |
Team Comparison
| Guadalajara Chivas | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | League Position | 5 |
| 36 | Points | 30 |
| 65% | Win % | 47% |
| 1.94 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.65 |
| 1 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.94 |
Venue Form
Guadalajara Chivas at Home
W3
D1
L1
(5 games)
Toluca Away
W1
D0
L3
(4 games)
Recent Form
Guadalajara Chivas
W
L
W
D
W
Toluca
W
L
L
L
Head to Head
Toluca
2 : 0
Guadalajara Chivas
L
Guadalajara Chivas
0 : 3
Toluca
W
Toluca
2 : 1
Guadalajara Chivas
L
